POWER MUST CHANGE VOICE

Praise the Lord? Halleluyah, i say praise, praise, praise the Lord, Hallelujah, people of God i am here today to testify to the goodness of God, Amen? Amen! some few days ago i was just a chairman of editorial booard of our newspaper- CONSCIENCE NURTURED IN TRUTH, but today the lord has promoted me to the post of Special Adviser to the President on Media and Publicity.

Well, some jealous people are beginning to say all sort of things, some said i am strongly in support of the removal of fuel subsidy today as opposed to those days when i was just a chairman of editorial board, well, before i explained what happened let me read to your a copy of my opposition article of those days;

 

It must be a joke, right? The proposed plan by the Federal Government to fully deregulate the downstream sector and remove the remaining subsidy on petroleum products. When the news first broke during the week, Nigerians were told that a committee had been set up to be led by the Governor of Bauchi State, Isa Yuguda, with a mandate to work out an action-plan and a time-table for implementation and consult with stakeholders.

The mischief and dishonesty are obvious: why set up a committee to seek the input of stakeholders when a final decision has already been taken? ... The Global Recession Committee should take another look at its proposal, it should pay close attention to public responses. No matter how attractive the removal of subsidy in the downstream sector may be, this is not the time to do it. And this is not how to go about it. Now again we pay the price for poor leadership. What is being planned is provocative. It is an invitation to chaos

—Reuben Abati

 

Well, people of God, if you must know, nothing is wrong with me, the inconsistency in my opinion is simply because of my change of status, when you are in Rome you must act like Romans, perhaps after my tenure as the president’s spokesperson I may resume my contradictory views but what you must understand right now is that power has changed hands just like the name of our ministry. Amen?.... Amen!!!

THE GOSPEL ACCORDING TO SANUSI

Good morning class! Good morning sir!!, thank you, I am pastor SANUSI LAMIDO SANUSI, I am your new economics lecturer, unlike my predecessor, Prof SOLUDO who was an academic I will like to use the preaching method, in this class nobody knows anything except me, you must not ask any question about whatever I tell you because I can never be wrong. You can ask the HOD, Deaconess ALLISON MADUKWE or the Dean of this faculty prophetess OKONJO IWEALA or even the Vice chancellor, his holiness, Arch Bishop GOODLUCK EBELE JONATHAN,  they can all bear witness to my risk management skill. Today our topic is FUEL SUBSIDY what did I call it? So listen up;
The nationwide strike against government's removal of fuel subsidy is costing the economy about N100 billion ($617million) daily. I  expect inflation to rise to about 14 to15 per cent by the middle of this year, up from its current position of 10.5 percent, due to the impact of subsidy removal.“ Clearly inflation was always going to go up with the removal of subsidy. I think what we've seen is the immediate shock impact of a sudden removal and things will settle down.  It took us  one and half to two years from 2009 to come down to single-digit from 15.6 percent. I think a realistic target if we actually hit 15 percent, I think we will be looking at end of 2013 before we come back to single-digits, i think it's time to make a deal, any kind of compromise should have a final deadline for removal of subsidy ,I also want to suggest the option of keeping fuel price at N100 per litre and phasing out subsidies. But I insist that the details should be left to the government and labour to decide.

Meanwhile, Sanusi while I’m advocating for an agreement between the Federal Government and labour which would bring about gradual removal of the subsidy, said: “Look, the Federal Government can continue paying subsidy at N65 per litre for a while. I am not saying that it is not economically possible for that to be done, but speaking as a Nigerian, I will like to see a win-win situation.”, “I will like to see a situation in which the government shifts a little and breaks this policy into one or two instalment and I will also like a situation in which Nigerians also shift a little and understand that we cannot continue to have a Father Christmas kind of situation. If we continue doing this today, our children are going to pay for it. End of sermon!!!
Preach on pastor, we are enjoying the sermon, in all sincerity, who am I to speak when the only learned person has spoken but I only need to point the attention of the CBN guru to a couple of things.
First, the Nigerian war is not just against subsidy, it is against an extravagant and inconsiderate government. The presidency is talking about subsidy and sacrifice and yet budgeting N1.8b to maintain ‘existing furniture, office and residential quarters’, N1.7b for travel (N724m domestic, N951m international), a ministry has budgeted N2.5b for ‘citizens call centers’ whilst the ministry of agriculture has budgeted N1.2b to incorporate commodity marketing companies. Stationery, refreshments and snacks in the presidency will consume about N2b, miscellaneous spending by the presidential villa alone totals about N1.7b for food, honorarium and something called welfare packages. The SGF and head of service will also receive over N2.5b for miscellaneous expenses including about N300m for welfare and N270m for security votes. These are nothing but misplaced spending priorities! If we say Nigeria needs money because we are broke, the question is how did we get to that point? Simple- the reckless spending of our leaders, then why are we being forced to pay for it? Yet they are going about it in such an arrogant way as if it is time for us to pay for our sins. If the government of Jonathan under the advisory of Sanusi has chosen to help us, it is our fundamental human right to either accept the help or not.
Again the federal government is losing billions of naira to the NLC strike, the federal government in five days has lost an amount that is more than the total subsidy for one year and yet does not care to stop the strike by listening to the voice of the people, there can only be two things involved, it is either the government have a hidden agenda that is beyond this subsidy or that it is another chapter of the government’s prodigal expenditure. If we are actually as broke as the government claimed that we are, how does the same government hope to make up for the financially loss that we have made during this strike?
Finally, to say that if subsidy is not removed our great grandchildren will never be free from paying debts is a terminological inexactitude, what on earth is wrong with subsidy? With subsidy, in Venezuela, the fuel price is N3.61 and the minimum wage is N95,639, in Kuwait, the fuel price is N34.54 and the minimum wage is N161, 461; in Saudi Arabia the fuel price is N25.12 while the minimum wage is N99,237; in Qatar it is N34.54 and their wage is N101,250. Even in Libya, the price is N26.69 and the minimum wage is N23,813 but in Nigeria, not all the 36 states have enforced the N18,000 minimum wage and we are set to move the price of fuel from N65 to N140-N200. Why is our own case just so different? If you say it is corruption but I have heard us say it times without number that Nigeria is not the only corrupt country and that corruption is everywhere in the world, so how have these people being able to manage their own.

My one word advice for pastor Lamido is to look beyond figures and face the political reality of the Nigerian state, if he can combine the Knowledge of that political reality with his economic facts we will sure move forward otherwise we would only have succeded in turning Nigeria into an ECONOMICS 101 class where Sanusi is the lecturer, Okonjo Iweala is the Dean of faculty and his holiness bishop Jonathan as the Vice chancellor.

FUEL SUBSIDY: Error of the experts

The government needs to apologize to Nigerians for her insensitive decision on this subsidy removal and go back to the drawing board immediately. For the records, the total amount leading to this WORLD WAR III between FG and the masses is total at N1.3 trillion, every day, when labour go on strike Nigeria loses N320 billion, a simple arithmetic of this amount for the past five days gives us N1.6trillion- This means that in the last five days Nigerian have lost more than what we are trying to get in one year. If the government can afford to bear this loss why are they telling us that without subsidy our economy will collapse?
 Meanwhile, on a lighter mood, this financial loss is away from the fact that by October we will begin to have overpopulation because more men now have more time with their wives since all they do is to stay at home all day, by October (9 months after the strike), the product of those many jobless days will be out. Not also forgetting that crime rate is on the rise now because people are hungry, there is no money in ATM and banks are not working. This is the olimpian height of insensitivity from any government to his people.
Now, to the matter of the day, let me start by telling his excellency that Nigerians, including my humble self, are not against deregulation per se and if any example of shoddy government is needed, it is to be found in this current impasse of subsidy removal. Deregulation is a package of transition from public monopoly to competitive market. Necessary ingredients for this transition include at the barest minimum; (1) Well articulated policy review (2) Enabling legislation to de-monopolize the sector (3) A regulatory agency that will supervise the sector and implement the program (4) Attracting and licensing of private sector providers in the sector. That is what we did in the BPE with the telecommunications sector, and now the electricity industry.
Clearly when the Jonathan administration’s approach to this issue is measured against the foregoing minimum 4 ingredients, it is glaringly obvious that what we have is, at best, a knee jerk approach rather than a well thought out deregulation program. If not, who is the regulatory agency for the deregulated downstream petroleum sector? If the answer is PPPRA, is the agency well equipped and ready for this task? And where are its program? And why was the petroleum industry bill not enacted prior to the subsidy removal? Who are the private sector competitors that will replace or augment the moribund publicly owned refineries? Are we to continue to depend on the imported refined products as a substitute for local value addition and job creation?
Even if the Nigerian people should decide that refined petroleum products should be sold at the opportunity cost which is the international benchmark price, the popular will remains that the cost and size of government today is unwieldy and unacceptable.  In 2011 nearly 75% of the entire budget was spent on recurrent expenditure. The people have complained time and again that the salaries and allowances of the executive and legislative arms of government are neither affordable nor sustainable. Why has the government shied away from tackling 75% of the problem whilst devoting energy to the remaining 25%?
The bloated overheads are not only real but have been carried forward into the 2012 budget proposal such that only N1.3tr out of the total budget of N4.75tr is available for capital expenditure. Meanwhile the presidency is budgeting N1.8b to maintain ‘existing furniture, office and residential quarters’, N1.7b for travel (N724m domestic, N951m international), a ministry has budgeted N2.5b for ‘citizens call centers’ whilst the ministry of agriculture has budgeted N1.2b to incorporate commodity marketing companies. Stationery, refreshments and snacks in the presidency will consume about N2b, miscellaneous spending by the presidential villa alone totals about N1.7b for food, honorarium and something called welfare packages. The SGF and head of service will also receive over N2.5b for miscellaneous expenses including about N300m for welfare and N270m for security votes. These are nothing but misplaced spending priorities!
Moving on to the components of the so called N1.3tr fuel subsidy (by end of October 2011) the government is bent on removing, we can ignore the fact that no one in government has been able to analyze and substantiate how the amount of the subsidy ballooned or skyrocketed from the earmarked amount of N240b or between of N300-N500b in the last four years, to the N1.3tr now and focus on the fact that both the government and the people have agreed that the process and system of subsidy payments are corrupt and fraught with fraud. So the question is why this government is not as anxious to investigate and charge all those found to have abused the system as it is determined to remove the subsidy.
In Venezuela, the fuel price is N3.61 and the minimum wage is N95,639, in Kuwait, the fuel price is N34.54 and the minimum wage is N161, 461; in Saudi Arabia the fuel price is N25.12 while the minimum wage is N99,237; in Qatar it is N34.54 and their wage is N101,250. Even in Libya, the price is N26.69 and the minimum wage is N23,813 but in Nigeria, not all the 36 states have enforced the N18,000 minimum wage and we are set to move the price of fuel from N65 to N140-N200. Weep my beloved country, weep!

Fuel Subsidy or Corruption subsidy?

Let me start this article by saying happy new year to all my readers because your president was not able to say the same to you, he was so much in a hurry to effect his subsidy agenda and that was exactly what he use as both seasons greeting and new year gift eh! Yah! Sorry about about that.

However, I have watched for sometimes now, the ongoing debate on fuel subsidy, to be or not to be and sincerely, the first thing we must know is that there is no subsidy removal in the first place, it is corruption subsidy that Jonathan is trying to remove, this is what I mean, a marketer brings in 40 million litres of fuel into the country, but he declares 5million litres and sells 35 million at what is called the Platt price elsewhere, whereas Nigeria has paid him the subsidy worth 40 million litres. He will pocket the value of 35 million litres times N65. Then the question is why do 150 million Nigerian have to suffer the sin of some few people.

Again, nobody is disputing the fact that deregulation is good, but this matter is not only about deregulation it is also about trust, all we hear is that the subsidy has to go because we need the money to rebuild the economy. Subsidy has not helped us as a country in the past decades. The beneficiaries have leeched the system to the tune of N1.3 trillion, noted Alison-Madueke. Okonjo-Iweala says the economy will benefit from the infusion of new capital but my question is how will the money be allocated? Through the state governors and local chairmen, the same set of people who accepted corruption as part of the official code of governance, if this is the subsidy, then my definition of subsidy is simple, it is the  removal of our funds from thieves and the handing over of the funds to robbers.

To now add insult to the injury, a non-governmental organisation, the Save Nigeria Group said an independent research it conducted showed that the four refineries in the country had a total installed capacity of 445,000 barrels per day and that the current capacity of the refineries was 133,500 barrels per day (or 21.2m litres, 30 per cent of installed capacity) due to ageing equipment.

The required domestic consumption for petrol was 12m litres This means that even our moribund refineries can actually meet our local consumption need for petroleum, So let’s do a simple mathematics, The cost structure of crude oil production includes:

 findings/development, $3.5;

production cost, $1.5;

refining cost, $12.6;

pipeline/transport, $1.5;

and distribution/bridging fund margin, $15.69.

With this, the total sum cost per one barrel of petroleum anywhere in Nigeria will be   $34.8; then one litre will cost $34.8/159 litres, which will be $0.219; 9). To get the naira equivalent, multiply $0.219 by N160 (i.e. the current exchange rate of the naira to the dollar): 0.219xN160 is N35.02k. When we add tax – N5 to N35.02, the total cost is N40.02; 10).  Thus, the actual cost of petrol per litre in Nigeria is N40.02. Haba! Oga Jonathan, remember that when you had no shoes we voted for you o, but if after acquiring many shoes you have decided to trampled us to death with this unfriendly and insensitive policy. God will be the judge, but before then Nigerians will not sleep and you too will not even dare to do the same.

From the look of things- a couple of African countries have deregulated, who does not know that this subsidy removal is not without a coalition with the IMF- the manufacturers of Okonjo Iweala and  PPPRA was only motivated by a desire to make more money for the federal and state governments by embarking on a crushing increase in the prices of petroleum products in the country. Those who pushed for the pump price to be increased from N65 to N141 per litre were only motivated by the need to recoup the huge amount of money they expended on funding their April 2011 elections. The current price that was fixed by the PPPRA had nothing whatsoever to do with the figures that were being reeled out by government officials. If Jonathan cannot tackle the real culprits, he should let us know. Visiting the sins of a larcenous few on the pauperised mass is totally unjust.